Ackman’s Chipotle Trade is Cooling Off, But the Burrito Bulls Aren’t Tapping Out

Opinion

Bill Ackman’s once-blistering bet on Chipotle Mexican Grill has undeniably lost some of its heat. Back in 2016, when food safety scares had the burrito chain on the ropes, Ackman swooped in with an average buy price of $8.08 on a split-adjusted basis. Over the next few years, the stock ripped, soaring north of 388% and becoming a bedrock holding for Pershing Square Capital. Ackman played the cycle masterfully, systematically dumping millions of shares into strength at prices anywhere from $9 up to $62. That precision trimming locked in billions in realized gains and insulated his fund from the kind of nasty pullback the stock is wading through right now.

And make no mistake, the current price action has been brutal. Wall Street’s favorite growth compounder recently plunged to a 52-week low of $28.04 in early June 2026. While the stock has clawed back slightly—posting a modest afternoon bounce of 1.5% to $31.01 on decent volume in a recent New York trading session—it’s a far cry from the $58.41 peak it rode just a year ago. Even with shares recently testing the $38 waters, CMG is down roughly 35% year-to-date. The rapid slide underscores how violently the market can reprice legacy growth names when the momentum breaks.

Margin Squeeze and Market Realities

The fundamentals paint a messy picture of a brand dealing with growing pains in a saturated fast-casual space. Chipotle’s first-quarter numbers for 2026 flashed some undeniable warning signs. Sure, the top line is still expanding, with revenue ticking up 7.41% to land at $3.09 billion compared to last year’s $2.88 billion. But profitability took a very real hit. Earnings per share slipped to $0.23, down from $0.28 during the same stretch last year. Toss in the fact that Chipotle yields absolutely nothing in dividends to pay investors for their patience, and it’s easy to see why some of the retail money bailed.

Still, Ackman is holding onto a massive $850 million position, keeping CMG at nearly 6% of Pershing’s portfolio. That kind of stubborn conviction suggests the smart money views this dip as a menu reset rather than a structural collapse. The company basically wrote the playbook on mobile ordering and digital loyalty programs, building an economic moat that gives them the pricing power to weather choppy traffic. Analysts are currently pricing in a full-year EPS of $1.14 for 2026, and the street is gearing up for the Q2 print in late July to see if the bleeding has stopped.

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